By Asbjørn Rolstadås, Per Willy Hetland, George Farage Jergeas, Richard E. Westney (auth.)
Investors and executives of significant initiatives know the way frequently they bring about fee overruns and agenda delays. Risk Navigation techniques for significant Capital Projects builds on traditional most sensible perform to supply a risk-based view of present practices for making plans and executing huge overseas projects.
As economies of scale proceed to force tasks to ever-higher degrees of scope and complexity, new brooding about procedure and probability is needed. for the reason that significant tasks are hugely uncovered to exterior hazards, the normal view of predictability as whatever that may be mandated and ensured by way of rigorous software of traditional most sensible perform has turn into a fantasy. clean pondering is needed to control tasks at the present time, and this ebook presents a framework for taking venture administration most sensible perform to the subsequent level.
Risk Navigation techniques for significant Capital Projects is meant for executives making an investment in significant tasks, undertaking leaders and executives, in addition to people with a instructing or examine curiosity in venture and probability management.
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Extra resources for Risk Navigation Strategies for Major Capital Projects: Beyond the Myth of Predictability
Many small improvements on many details would, in total, add up to significant results. In addition to the continuous improvements, there would also be, from time to time, quantum leaps as breakthrough solutions were developed. This is illustrated in Fig. 12. One popular approach to improving project performance is to focus on FEL as explained earlier. This involves comprehensive risk analysis with the aim of freezing up-front decisions as much as possible to avoid unpleasant surprises at the back-end of the project.
Though the degree of inter-subjective agreement may be high and measured through the application of an epistemic reliability index, ERI [6, 9, 10], the true implication of uncertainty is still a guess based on professional judgments. The unknown-closed (lack of information) category is recognized as lack of information. Uncertainties in this category are rooted in missing pieces of information related to events that have taken place, hence may give a picture that is incomplete and ambiguous. The unknown-open (undetermined uncertainty) category is often referred to as unknown–unknown  or complexity [5, 7, 9, 10, 15].
As our investment of time, effort and money in developing and supporting our proposition increases, we are tunneling deeper. We are likely to become more anchored to our solution and, of course, to be reducing our ability to see outside the boundaries of our assumptions. An example of how tunneling can influence professionals is as follows: Very early (and usually optimistic) expectations of project cost and time to production are established. Although at this early phase there is little information on which to base these numbers, they effectively define a base case which anchors all the work that follows.