Issues raised during the Army after next spring wargame by Walt L. Perry, Bruce Pirnie, John Gordon, Arroyo Center

By Walt L. Perry, Bruce Pirnie, John Gordon, Arroyo Center

Summarizes matters generated in the course of the AAN Spring Wargame 1998.

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The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. Page v Contents Preface iii Figure vii Summary ix Acknowledgments xvii Glossary xix Chapter One Introduction 1 Connecting to the R&D Process 1 Organization of This Report 2 Chapter Two Methodology 3 Game Structure 3 Chapter Three Game Overview 9 Chapter Four Army After Next Issues 11 How Can Army Forces Operate Effectively When an Enemy Shields His Forces with Noncombatants? 11 What Kinds of Army Forces Would Be Best Able to Clear and Secure Cities Without Suffering Unacceptable Casualties?

The Arroyo Center assigned analysts to eight team cells to observe game play and the adjudication process. Both a TRAC and an Arroyo Center analyst were assigned to several of the more important team cells. Each analyst produced a daily chronology of events with emphasis on the decisions taken by the players and assessors. In cells to which both an Arroyo Center and a TRAC analyst were posted, a single chronology was submitted. In addition to the chronology, each analyst was asked to indicate how the events observed informed one or more of the 18 issues of interest to TRADOC (see the appendix).

A large component of adjudication consists of subjective assessments by experts, so consistent application of rules becomes more problematic. In its place, assessment teams seek reasonable outcomes. 3 See AAN 1998 Spring Wargame Political Military Workshop: Workshop Guide, TRADOC, 2224 March, 1998. Page 6 The major sources of decision rules are the annual tactical wargames, the franchise games, and TRADOC-sponsored workshops. Each of these is described below. Tactical wargames: These are held annually at TRAC Fort Leavenworth and are designed to capture the tactical effects of the postulated Red and Blue 2021 forces.

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