By Carl E. Seashore
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Extra resources for Elementary Experiments in Psychology
These funds do not normally remain on the best performers list for more than one or two quarters, because their style or the sector they reflect can only outperform the market for a limited period. They naturally get the attention of the media because KNOWING YOURSELF success makes news. After all, does the public really want to read about the fund managers half way down the list? " If you do this when the funds are in the top-five performance list for the past quarter, the chances are good that they will underperform during the next quarter.
Second, values have slipped to bargain basement levels, an important story that the research to put their necks on the line because they believe strongly that the market in question is forming a major bottom. By definition, such a campaign must take place after a long price decline when the environment is one of doom and gloom. Disappointing and frustrating whipsaw rallies will have interrupted the bear-market period so that the last thing most investors want to do is buy the particular asset in question.
The next step is to set up some safeguards to minimize the chances of falling into the same trap again. When you set up a trade or investment, don't ask yourself how much money you expect to make. Presumably, you believe the reward outweighs the risk, otherwise you wouldn't enter the market at all. Instead, ask yourself. What is the worst that is likely to happen under normal conditions? In other words, consider the risk before the potential reward. This process achieves two objectives. First, it sets out the risk-reward relationship.