By Okwui Enwezor
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Are there clear relationships of causality and reinforcement between investment and growth and between saving and growth? These are some of the key policy issues addressed in this study. B. 1). Low investment rates. Latin American nations, as most other developing countries, are subject to foreign credit constraints that have made investment highly dependent on national saving. Although investment is also financed with foreign saving, the latter’s contribution to total saving has been modest (below 3% of GDP in 1990-2003).
In addition, expenditure often expands on the basis of fiscal resources swelled by higher export prices. This could become difficult to finance if the price rise is temporary. Also, higher public spending may directly or indirectly apply additional downward pressure on the real exchange rate. This is why ECLAC has insisted on the need for governments to establish fiscal covenants to enable them to satisfy legitimate needs for increased expenditure without sacrificing efforts to achieve a sustainable balance within their public accounts.
A similar pattern is occurring with inflation: although, as a simple regional average, it abated in 2006 and into the first few months of 2007, it has been shooting up in several countries. This coincides with the emergence of the demand-side pressures referred to above, as well as supply pressures (due to the rise in food prices), which could lead to a widespread increase in inflation in the region. 26 UNITED STATES: REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (Base year 2000=100) 115 110 105 100 95 Average 2000- 2004 90 85 80 Average January 2005-May 2007 75 70 M1 2000 M4 2000 M7 2000 M10 2000 M1 2001 M4 2001 M7 2001 M10 2001 M1 2002 M4 2002 M7 2002 M10 2002 M1 2003 M4 2003 M7 2003 M10 2003 M1 2004 M4 2004 M7 2004 M10 2004 M1 2005 M4 2005 M7 2005 M10 2005 M1 2006 M4 2006 M7 2006 M10 2006 M1 2007 M4 2007 1.